The morning in Moscow was nice and clear, but cold, as cold
as the relations between Russia and the West right now, a new Cold War emerging. In Moscow things appear to be normal, business
as usual. In the streets, people commute to and from work in their fur-collared
winter jackets and fur hats. My commute from the hotel to the office is quite
short, just a 10 minute walk.
The conflict in east Ukraine is not resolved, and probably
won’t be for a long time. Russia is under sanctions, from USA and its allied.
The goal of the sanctions is to hit the Russian government and the rich
oligarchs who support it. The exchange rate of the Ruble is down 50% compared
to US dollars. Consequently, the cost of imported goods has increased a lot. The sanctions hit ordinary people too. That’s
what my Russian friends and colleagues tell me.
I doubt the sanctions will work. Russia can’t be forced in
any way. The Russians don’t give in to external pressure, and never did. They didn’t give in to Napoleon. They didn’t
give in to Hitler. They certainly don’t give in to Obama. They will rather
perish.
The Russians like to criticize their government, the
bureaucracy, the misuse of power and corruption in their country. However, they
don’t want to be criticized by foreigners. What happens when sanctions are
imposed is that Putin becomes more popular than ever. He is gathering the
Russian people against a common external enemy; USA, EU and NATO.
From the western point of view, the Russian annexation of
Crimea is unacceptable. It violates international rules and laws. The Russians see
it differently. They have bad experience with laws in general, from past and present
corrupt regimes. The laws are obscure and ambiguous, and can always be twisted
and interpreted in favor of the mighty and powerful. Law doesn't imply justice. For the Russian
government, the same logic applies on the global scale; USA is an aggressor,
supported by international regulations, which threatens Russian rights and
interests.
The Russians have a good, but quite subjective, sense of
justice. And justice says that Crimea belongs to Russia. When Leo Tolstoy was a
young man, he served in the Tsar’s army during the Crimean war. He wrote about
it in the Sevastopol Stories (a good book). Crimea was given to Ukraine by Khrushchev
in the 1954. At that time it was only an administrative formality within the
Soviet Union. Then Crimea drifted away when the Soviet Union collapsed and
Ukraine became independent. However, many Russians still see it as a part of
Russia.
That’s what they say. I just say that different people see
things in different ways. The politicians in America and Western Europe don’t
understand the Russian mentality. That’s for sure.
(Picture taken in
Moscow this morning, when I was walking from the hotel to our office, and crossing
the bridge over the frozen Moscow River to Krasnye Holmy.)
Well, they are right about one thing. the US is an aggressor.
ReplyDeleteSeen from Western Europe, the US is a friend, but seen from many other countries, the US appears to be an aggressor.
DeleteSanctions is government stuff and not stuff the people do. We all just reap the bull crap that comes from the government ploys. Few Americans really care about what either government is doing. And there is good and bad to everything.
ReplyDeleteThe U.S. would probably be doing better with a leader like Putin instead the anti-American values guys we have at the helm now.
I think that sanctions have little real effect in the big picture. Maybe some temporary discomfort, but people learn to deal with the situation Applying sanctions is a symbolic gesture that's dumb. I think Obama said the same about Cuba and yet he's doing the same thing.
Lee
Tossing It Out
I think the American's would also care about the sanctions, if they felt the effect like the Russian people do now. Also, I think Americans would care about government stuff, if the felt the acts of the Russian government like the Ukrainians do right now.
DeletePutin has in some ways been a good leader for Russia. He has improved the economy, very much thanks to the luck of high oil prices over the last years. Also, Putin as taken power from (some of) the rich oligarchs, and improved the average Russians living conditions. So, if the Russians accept the limitations Putin has put on democracy and free speech, you may say he has been a good leader. At least he's a lot more popular than Obama has ever been.
And since when politicians care for things like mentality? This world is not ruled by feelings, but by strongly ego-centered minds in all aspects, so particularly the leaders don't give a shit about how we feel about their decisions. We live in a sad world, where the true values are just ridiculous (mostly) to the majority...
ReplyDeletePoliticians (and corporate managers) have an agenda. They play with people's feelings to achieve their goals. Many politicians have an interest in fueling the conflicts in various parts of the world
DeleteYes, I agree and have meant partly the same. The last idea belonging to fueling the conflicts on a local-scale is a free seating concept in a working environment, where most of the employees need and use special equipment. This makes the whole concept not applicable - but do they care? Do they understand? NO, they just need to fulfill their agenda.
DeleteIt's the same thing, just a different scale
DeleteInteresting post. And this is so true: "They didn’t give in to Napoleon. They didn’t give in to Hitler. They certainly don’t give in to Obama. They will rather perish."
ReplyDeleteThanks. Historically, major changes in Russia are driven from the inside rather than external pressure, for instance the 1917 revolution, and perestrojka in the 1980s.
DeleteI like this part: The Russians like to criticize their government, the bureaucracy, the misuse of power and corruption in their country. However, they don’t want to be criticized by foreigners.
ReplyDeleteI bet there are plenty of Americans who feel the same or people of any country really.
Yes, that's probably the case
Delete