The morning in Moscow was nice and clear, but cold, as cold
as the relations between Russia and the West right now, a new Cold War emerging. In Moscow things appear to be normal, business
as usual. In the streets, people commute to and from work in their fur-collared
winter jackets and fur hats. My commute from the hotel to the office is quite
short, just a 10 minute walk.
The conflict in east Ukraine is not resolved, and probably
won’t be for a long time. Russia is under sanctions, from USA and its allied.
The goal of the sanctions is to hit the Russian government and the rich
oligarchs who support it. The exchange rate of the Ruble is down 50% compared
to US dollars. Consequently, the cost of imported goods has increased a lot. The sanctions hit ordinary people too. That’s
what my Russian friends and colleagues tell me.
I doubt the sanctions will work. Russia can’t be forced in
any way. The Russians don’t give in to external pressure, and never did. They didn’t give in to Napoleon. They didn’t
give in to Hitler. They certainly don’t give in to Obama. They will rather
perish.
The Russians like to criticize their government, the
bureaucracy, the misuse of power and corruption in their country. However, they
don’t want to be criticized by foreigners. What happens when sanctions are
imposed is that Putin becomes more popular than ever. He is gathering the
Russian people against a common external enemy; USA, EU and NATO.
From the western point of view, the Russian annexation of
Crimea is unacceptable. It violates international rules and laws. The Russians see
it differently. They have bad experience with laws in general, from past and present
corrupt regimes. The laws are obscure and ambiguous, and can always be twisted
and interpreted in favor of the mighty and powerful. Law doesn't imply justice. For the Russian
government, the same logic applies on the global scale; USA is an aggressor,
supported by international regulations, which threatens Russian rights and
interests.
The Russians have a good, but quite subjective, sense of
justice. And justice says that Crimea belongs to Russia. When Leo Tolstoy was a
young man, he served in the Tsar’s army during the Crimean war. He wrote about
it in the Sevastopol Stories (a good book). Crimea was given to Ukraine by Khrushchev
in the 1954. At that time it was only an administrative formality within the
Soviet Union. Then Crimea drifted away when the Soviet Union collapsed and
Ukraine became independent. However, many Russians still see it as a part of
Russia.
That’s what they say. I just say that different people see
things in different ways. The politicians in America and Western Europe don’t
understand the Russian mentality. That’s for sure.
(Picture taken in
Moscow this morning, when I was walking from the hotel to our office, and crossing
the bridge over the frozen Moscow River to Krasnye Holmy.)





